About Me

Name: Old Retired Fart
Biography
Loading...

Create Your Own Blog Find Other Townhall Blogs

Comments

Blog Roll

 

Unutterable stupidity

Winston Churchill supposedly responded to Neville Chamberlains "Peace in Our Time" appeasement of Nazi Germany speech by saying "I wish to thank the gentleman for proving that there is no such thing as unutterable stupidity".  I wish to thank James Baker and crew for proving that nothing has changed.

The Baker report on Iraq is just so much nonsense.  It is more of a fairy tale than a plan.

Once upon a time, I taught problem solving to young captains at an Army school.  The second part of the Army's problem solving process is to gather information pertaining to the problem.  We taught the captains that there were two types of information.  Facts--readily observable or verifiable..i.e. things that had already happened and could be verified, or the current state of things e.g "it is currently raining outside."  Then there were assumptions:--statements DRAWN FROM FACTS about the mostly likely future state of things.  My students rapidly discovered that they had been taught the incorrect use of assumptions their entire lives.  My young captains used assumptions the same way that the Baker group does.  They make assumptions about the way they hope things will be, regardless of what the past says.  Frequently, these assumptions are the linchpin of the plan and when they fail, the plan fails with them.

Baker and friends assume that some good will come out of bringing Syria and Iran into the "discussion".  There is no evidence that bringing in third parties has ever helped in a middle eastern crisis...but if their assumption is incorrect, the entire report is worthless.

I used to make my captains show me a clear line from facts to assumptions.  Frequently, they, like Mr Baker made assumptions based on nothing more than their desire to support a conclusion they had already made.  When they did, I showed them the error of their ways and returned their briefings to them with a large red "RE-DO" across the top.  I think the President ought to get out his red pen as well.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (2) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (1) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive